Personable Markets: Alibaba’s AI Boom, Fed Faces Trump & Retail Investors Shake Markets

This is the 1st episode of Personable markets in which I aim to speak to a hedgefund manager, VC or Investment Banker every week on real world market events. In this episode I speak to...

Stephen Roberts who is the founder of Orgueil Capital (an investment vehicle with its North Star to quintuple capital over the next 8-9 year period) & Former Partner at the Hedge Fund Horseman Capital.

In this episode, Stephen Roberts reveals:
◽️ The SURPRISING reason Hang Seng is one of 2025’s top indexes
◽️ Why Nvidia’s sky-high valuation could impact markets
◽️ His Secret to spotting China’s undervalued tech giants
◽️ The impact of Trump’s Fed pressure
◽️ The HIDDEN power of retail investors shaking markets

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⏱ Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:36 Hang Seng's Overlooked Surge
02:54 Alibaba's Cloud Computing Success
03:35 China's Geopolitical Investment Risks
05:00 U.S. Policies Create Global Opportunities
06:19 Nio's Strong China Performance
06:40 China's Online Shopping Trend
07:25 Misconceptions About China Media
09:19 AI Investment Beyond Nvidia
09:58 Nvidia's Competition Risks Exposed
10:49 DeepSeek's Sudden AI Launch
11:43 Mag 7's Continued AI Focus
12:31 Trump's Green Light for Tech
13:57 U.S.-China Trade Deal Prospects
14:39 China's Strength Against Trump
17:18 Trump's Growth Agenda Detailed
19:08 State vs. Fed Relationship
20:55 Fed Holding Rates Spitefully?
21:32 Presidents' Views on Rates
22:58 Rates Conversation Overemphasis
24:21 Finding Market Opportunities Elsewhere
25:49 Consumer Sentiment in U.S.
28:19 GameStop Retail Pump Phenomenon
30:10 Monitoring Retail Investor Sentiment
32:49 Citadel's AI Transcript Analysis
35:47 Nvidia's Singapore Revenue Risks
38:24 AI's iPhone Moment Evolution
40:08 Banks Benefiting from AI
41:08 LP's Long-Term Investment Strategy
44:08 Hedge Fund Failure Rates
45:18 S&P 500's High Risks
47:20 Equal-Weighted S&P Considerations
48:51 Mag 7 Distraction Warning
48:57 Key Trade Recommendations
49:39 Bitcoin's Government Hedge Role
50:56 Defense Stocks Like Palantir
55:02 Luxury Consumer Trends
57:16 Gambling Sector Regulatory Risks
58:25 Luxury's Global Bull Trend
59:05 Hedge Funds on Social Media
1:00:09 Podcasting's Structural Growth
1:00:53 Avoid U.S.-Centric Mindset
1:01:18 Final Market Themes Outlook
1:01:48 Key Risks in Next Months
1:03:08 Outro

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📌 Resources
Stephen Roberts:
◽️ Orgueil Capital: https://www.orgueilcapital.com/our-story

Harvey Bracken-Smith:
◽️ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/harveybracken-smith
◽️ Instagram: instagram.com/harveybsmith
◽️ X (Twitter): x.com/harveybsmith_
◽️ Newsletter: https://personable.substack.com/

Personable Podcast:
◽️ Instagram: instagram.com/personable.podcast
◽️ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/personablepodcast
◽️ TikTok: tiktok.com/@personableclips
◽️ Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/7JOTYDER6m2FDrlhop4api
◽️ Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/personable/id1671640111

Additional:
◽️ The Draft (Sign up): thedraft.io
◽️ Fundraising: justgiving.com/crowdfunding/LouLouRacefoiundation?utm_term=PvByaxmdn

Personable is a podcast dedicated to helping listeners become the best they can be by learning from the world’s best in their respective fields. This mission is inspired by my mother, Louise, who encouraged me to become the best version of myself before she passed away from cancer in 2023.

This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative o