Trump Imposes 100% Tariffs on China, US-China AI War, Mag 7 Future, Gold Hits $4,000!

Stephen Roberts, Founder of Orgueil Capital (an investment vehicle with its North Star to quintuple capital over the next 8–9 years) and former Partner at Horseman Capital, returns to Personable Markets for his third appearance.

From navigating hedge fund cycles to founding his own investment vehicle, Stephen brings decades of experience in global macro investing and portfolio construction. In this episode, he breaks down the real-time market volatility, the U.S.–China standoff over rare earths, the AI-driven reshaping of industries, and why he believes we’re entering a new commodities cycle.

With deep insights into policy, behavioral investing, and structural shifts across energy, gold, and tech, Stephen shares his framework for surviving volatility and thriving through the next decade of change.

In this episode, Stephen Roberts discusses:
◽️ Trump’s rare earths tweet and the latest market sell-off
◽️ AI’s winners and losers — why jobs and society are at risk
◽️ U.S.–China energy economics and rare earth dependencies
◽️ The Magnificent 7, valuations, and whether we’re in a bubble
◽️ Gold, commodities, and the next supercycle
◽️ Why AI could cause the next recession
◽️ Oil prices, defense stocks, and global macro risks
◽️ Portfolio construction for the next 10 years — equities, bonds & gold

⏱ Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:37 Market volatility, Trump’s China tweet & rare earths
03:27 AI, commodities & “mining for AI”
07:01 U.S. vs. China — electricity, chips & competitive edges
09:20 The Magnificent 7: bubble or earnings-backed growth?
13:02 Leadership risk & investor psychology
17:19 AI’s job destruction, social fabric & regulation
24:25 The creator economy & new opportunities
29:17 Spotify, ownership of data & the new AI winners
34:44 Saudi Arabia, sovereign funds & poor investments
36:53 Gold, commodities & portfolio positioning
42:27 Bonds, deficits & a 20-year bear market
45:25 U.S. debt, taxation & political cycles
47:34 Key macro risks: oil, inflation & rates
55:55 Oil, defense stocks & geopolitics
59:49 Political uncertainty: France, Japan & the UK
1:03:22 Long-term allocation: equities, bonds & gold
1:04:01 Outro

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📌 Resources
Stephen Roberts:
◽️ Orgueil Capital: https://www.orgueilcapital.com/our-story

Harvey Bracken-Smith:
◽️ LinkedIn:  https://linkedin.com/in/harveybracken-smith
◽️ Instagram:  https://instagram.com/harveybsmith
◽️ X (Twitter):  https://x.com/harveybsmith_
◽️ Newsletter:  https://personable.substack.com/

Personable Podcast:
◽️ Instagram:  https://instagram.com/personable.podcast
◽️ LinkedIn:  https://linkedin.com/company/personablepodcast
◽️ TikTok:  https://tiktok.com/@personableclips
◽️ Spotify:  https://open.spotify.com/show/7JOTYDER6m2FDrlhop4api
◽️ Apple Podcasts:  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/personable/id1671640111

Additional:
◽️ The Draft (Sign up):  https://thedraft.io
◽️ Fundraising:  https://justgiving.com/crowdfunding/LouLouRacefoiundation?utm_term=PvByaxmdn

Personable is a podcast dedicated to helping listeners become the best they can be by learning from the world’s best in their respective fields. This mission is inspired by my mother, Louise, who encouraged me to become the best version of myself before she passed away from cancer in 2023.

This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Investing involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.