AI Market Bubble?! Commodities & Banks Surging! Europe & Asia Outperform! Huge Mayoshi Son US Bet!

Stephen Roberts, Founder of Orgueil Capital (an investment vehicle with its North Star to quintuple capital) and former Partner at Horseman Capital, returns to Personable Markets for one of his most information packed conversations yet.

From dissecting the disconnect between AI headlines and real market performance to uncovering where the true returns have been hiding this year, Stephen brings decades of global macro experience to help investors separate noise from opportunity. In this episode, he explains why commodities and banks have outperformed while tech dominated the narrative, how the steep yield curve transformed UK and European financials, and why Asia and Europe have quietly delivered standout performance.

With sharp analysis across rates, geopolitics, employment trends and the coming wave of AI driven productivity shifts, Stephen breaks down the forces reshaping markets, the risks investors are ignoring and the structural changes likely to define the next decade.

In this episode, Stephen Roberts discusses:
◽️ AI hype versus reality and why investors are missing the real trades
◽️ Commodities surging and the return of a global materials cycle
◽️ Banks minting money from the steep yield curve
◽️ Europe and Asia outperforming and why valuations still look attractive
◽️ China tech recovery, Alibaba’s rebound and cloud dominance
◽️ AI’s impact on unemployment and future economic policy

⏱ Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:31 Markets since last episode, volatility, tech noise and real performance
02:12 AI bubble debate and why the narrative is misplaced
04:10 Commodities surge across gold, copper and miners
06:25 Banks, yield curves and earnings doubling across the UK
09:38 Europe and Asia outperform while investors stay fixated on AI
12:14 Alibaba, Tencent and China’s cloud advantage
15:03 How Stephen evaluates winners, losers and sector momentum
22:39 Why interest rates determine everything in markets
26:04 US manufacturing push and Mayoshi Son’s investment plans
29:21 Rare earth leverage, Nvidia dependence and geopolitical tension
32:48 Private markets versus public markets, liquidity and risk
43:17 Commodities, banks and where Stephen sees opportunity
47:01 Potential triggers for market stress across rates and employment
52:44 Closing insights and long term positioning
53:12 Outro

📌 Resources
Stephen Roberts:
◽️ Orgueil Capital: https://www.orgueilcapital.com/our-story

Harvey Bracken-Smith:
◽️ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/harveybracken-smith
◽️ Instagram: https://instagram.com/harveybsmith
◽️ X (Twitter): https://x.com/harveybsmith_
◽️ Newsletter: https://personable.substack.com/
◽️ Website: https://www.personable.media/

Personable Podcast:
◽️ Instagram: https://instagram.com/personable.podcast
◽️ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/personablepodcast
◽️ TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@personableclips
◽️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7JOTYDER6m2FDrlhop4api
◽️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/personable/id1671640111

Additional:
◽️ The Draft (Sign up): https://thedraft.io
◽️ Fundraising: https://justgiving.com/crowdfunding/LouLouRacefoiundation?utm_term=PvByaxmdn

Personable is a podcast dedicated to helping listeners become the best they can be by learning from the world’s best in their respective fields. This mission is inspired by my mother, Louise, who encouraged me to become the best version of myself before she passed away from cancer in 2023. 

This content is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Investing involves risks, and past performance is